Strike on Iran Put on Hold Following Requests from Gulf Trio
US President Donald Trump announced via the social media platform Truth Social that he has abruptly canceled a planned military strike on Iran, shifting the situation toward a negotiation phase. In his post, Trump stated that he postponed the strike, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in response to requests from Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
He explained that, following the counsel of these leaders and allies, he expects an agreement acceptable to the US, Middle Eastern nations, and all parties involved, noting that serious negotiations are currently underway. Crucially, he emphasized that this agreement would include a strict prohibition on Iran possessing nuclear weapons. Consequently, Trump instructed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (referred to as the Secretary of War in the post), Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Daniel Kane, and the US military to hold the attack. However, he maintained military pressure by ordering forces to remain prepared to launch a large-scale strike on Iran at any moment should they fail to reach an acceptable agreement.
Maximum Pressure Strategy and the Possibility of Deception
This cancellation and shift toward negotiations is interpreted as an extension of the maximum pressure strategy, a core element of Trump’s foreign policy. Conversely, some analysts suggest this could be a tactical deception designed to lower the adversary’s guard with talk of peace negotiations before launching a surprise attack. Critics point out that such actions could undermine the trust essential for genuine peace negotiations in the future.
The backdrop of Gulf nations leading the peace initiatives and Trump accepting them reflects geopolitical calculations driven by survival. If the US strikes Iran and a full-scale war erupts, Iran’s primary targets for retaliation would likely be the energy infrastructure of the Gulf states that aligned with the US. Therefore, Gulf nations appear to have taken the lead in delaying the attack to avoid direct strikes and ensure regional stability.
Weakening of US Hegemony and the Consolidation of a Multipolar System
From a macro geopolitical perspective, this situation indicates that the global hegemonic status of the United States is weakening, transitioning toward a multipolar world order. As Iran demonstrates its ability to maintain significant military capabilities, preserving much of its missile force despite prolonged sanctions, experts assess that the US faces a strategic environment where it can no longer maintain its past unilateral dominance. In fact, Iran is responding to the multipolar order by establishing a new framework to control the Strait of Hormuz.
Dispersion of US Military Power and Changes in the Global Balance of Power
The dispersion and overextension of US military power and resources due to the Middle East crisis present another critical issue. While the US focuses on Iran, NATO nations in Europe are openly discussing the mass production of long-range weapons to strike the Russian mainland, driving up tensions. This leaves room for escalation into a crisis involving Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons and direct conflict with NATO. Consequently, while major powers like the US, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East consume their capabilities amid military tensions, China, having avoided the conflict, is expanding its influence and reaping strategic gains amid the shifting global order.